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Probability Biased and Unbiased | AIME I, 2010 Question 4

Try this beautiful problem from the American Invitational Mathematics Examination, AIME 2010 based on Probability Biased and Unbiased.

Probability Biased and Unbiased - AIME 2010

Ramesh and Suresh have two fair coins and a third coin that comes up heads with probability $\frac{4}{7}$,Ramesh flips the three coins, and then Suresh flips the three coins, let $\frac{m}{n}$ be the probability that Ramesh gets the same number of heads as Suresh, where m and n are relatively prime positive integers. Find m+n.

• is 107
• is 250
• is 840
• cannot be determined from the given information

Key Concepts

Series

Probability

Number Theory

AIME, 2010, Question 4

Combinatorics by Brualdi

Try with Hints

First hint

No heads TTT is $\frac{1.1.1}{2.2.7}=\frac{3}{28}$and $(\frac{3}{28})^{2}=\frac{9}{784}$

One Head HTT THT TTH with $\frac{3}{28}$ $\frac {3}{28}$ and $\frac{4}{28}$ then probability is $\frac{4(3.3)+4(3.4)+1(4.4)}{28^{2}}$=$\frac{100}{784}$

Second Hint

Two heads HHT $\frac{4}{28}$ HTH $\frac{4}{28}$ THH $\frac{3}{28}$ then probability is $\frac{1(3.3)+4(3.4)+4(4.4)}{28^{2}}$=$\frac{121}{784}$.

Final Step

Three heads HHH is $\frac{4}{28}$ then probability $\frac{16}{784}$

Then sum is $\frac{9+100+121+16}{784}=\frac{123}{392}$ then 123+392=515.